Current Research Projects
Climate change and extreme weather impacts on managed forests and agricultural crops in the Great Lakes region
Background:
Forests provide numerous environmental, ecological, social and economic benefits to society. A large portion of forests in in the Great Lakes region in Canada and US are plantation or managed forests of different ages that has been established in former agricultural lands. These forests absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to offset some of the fossil fuel emissions. We have initiated a long-term research program to investigate how different managed forests and agricultural crops will respond to future climate change and extreme weather events. We are also investigating the impact of changes in hydrology and nutrient cycling of these forest and agricultural ecosystems.
A brief description of some of the research projects being conducted in our group is given below.
1. Extreme Weather Events Impacts on Carbon and Water Cycles: Response of both conifer and deciduous stands to extreme weather events as well as seasonal and annual climate variability is being evaluated using eddy covariance fluxes and meteorological and biometric data from 2003-2014 (10-years). We make continuous measurements of soil CO2 emissions at 75-year old conifer and >80-year old deciduous sites using automatic soil chamber systems. Soil respiration studies are also be conducted at two younger sites (using Li-6400 system) to estimate the contribution of soil CO2 fluxes to annual net ecosystem productivity. We study plant and soil nutrients (e.g. N, P, S, Ca etc) in National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots at all four sites to determine their relationship with C cycling. A thorough understanding of plant-soil nutrient cycling processes and their control on canopy assimilation and water use is essential to accurately predict the response of these forests to future climate change.
2. Reconstruct of Past Climate: We are reconstructing past climate and extreme weather events in our forests using tree ring analysis coupled with C isotopes (δ13C, δ18O and δD) and eddy covariance flux data. Dr. Pisaric (Brock Univ.) and Dr. Patterson (Univ. of Saskatchewan) are collaborating in tree ring and isotopic analysis, respectively.
Evaluation of Forest Management Impacts: Our 75-yr old conifer forest was commercially thinned (30% trees harvested) in March 2012. We are evaluating the impact of this management treatment on carbon, water, nutrient and energy budgets and stand recovery rate of this forest by comparing post-thinning (2012 to 2020) eddy covariance fluxes with pre-thinning (2003 to 2011) fluxes. This study will help to assess the multifunctional role of forests for carbon sequestration, as well as, timber production.
3. Variable Density Thinning: We are investigating the impact of different pattern of Variable Density Thinning, VDT (33% and 55% aggregate retention vs dispersed canopy) at our 75-year old forest. Twenty one VDT plots, one hectare each have being established in fall 2013. Tree diameters and heights are measure in thinned and control plots. Tree rings, through coring will also be measured. This work will enable us to study the impact of forest restoration practices and structural diversity to improve ecosystem stability and resilience.
4. Biometric and Ecological measurements: Biometric (e.g tree height, stem diameter, litterfall) measurements are being measured in NFI plots at all four sites. Changes in canopy phenology are observed using Pheno Cameras at all four sites (Lead by Dr. Andrew Richarson’s Network). Canopy structural parameters, including the effective LAI used to estimate fractional PAR, clumping index, needle-to-shoot area ratio is measured in all four sites (lead by Dr. Chen, Universiy of Toronto) It would help to determine the impact of forest age and forest management on forest structural properties, radiation regime and fluxes.
5. Upscaling CO2 Fluxes from Canopy to Region: From spring 2015, we will conduct canopy scale optical measurements at older conifer and deciduous forests using Decagon NDVI and PRI sensors in collaboration with Dr. Ensminger (Univ. of Toronto). This work will enable us to upscale carbon fluxes from leaf to site to satellite data and determine carbon flux estimates based on remote sensing for both contrasting biomes.
Application of Geophysical Techniques in Forestry: 3-D spatial distribution of belowground biomass in all four forests is being estimated using non-destructive, multi-channel Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) developed by Ingegneria dei Sistemi (IDS) Inc. The results will provide important baseline data for evaluating and verifying the accuracy of allometric belowground carbon estimates. Dr. Joe Boyce from McMaster University is leading this work.
6. Economic Viability of Afforestation: We are exploring the economic feasibility of conifer afforestation in Canada, including its C sequestration related benefits and the use of forest biomass as substitute for fossil fuels.
7. Development of Ecosystem Model – CLASSIC: We have incorporated plant and soil N cycling algorithms in the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASSIC) to simulate N constraints on C cycling and to evaluate the impact of climate change and N feedbacks on vegetation ecosystems. CLASSIC is used in Canadian Earth System Model (Can-ESM). This work builds on our past efforts where we had evaluated the impacts of disturbance regimes, climate variability and CO2 fertilization, on the historic carbon budget of a Pacific Northwestern Forest Landscape from 1920-2005 using CN-CLASS model and participated in Canadian C Program (CCP) model inter-comparison study. We also participated in global Fluxnet, North American Carbon Program (NACP) site-level and Multi-Scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) and the Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) synthesis studies. Development and implementation of improved CLASSIC in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) would provide an assessment tool to generate robust scenarios of future climate for policy development.
8. Hydrologic Modelling Study: We have integrated measured flux data from all four sites in a hydrologic model (MESH-CLASS) to extrapolate site level information to the watershed scale and to determine how carbon balance of managed forests may be influenced by watershed-scale hydrology. Carbon cycle is tightly coupled to the water and energy cycles, therefore this evaluation will help to improve MESG-CLASS model for sub-grid scale biogeochemical and hydrologic processes.
Study Significance:
In this project long-term eddy covariance fluxes and regional hydrological data are being combined with terrestrial ecosystem and hydrological models to explore climate change and extreme weather impacts. Quantification of the responses of managed forests to climate changes will help environmental planners to develop adaptation strategies for growth and survival of these forests. Modeling work conducted in this project would help to develop next generation of Land Surface Atmosphere Interaction and Terrestrial Ecosystems models (such as CLASSIC) for the Canadian Earth System Model to predict future climate changes.
See more details of our sites here:
Collaborators and Supporters:
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR), Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Long Point Region Conservation Authority, Norfolk County, Fluxnet Canada
Funding Agencies:
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI), Ontario Innovations Trust, Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MOECC), Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmosphere(CFCAS)-BioCAP through Canadian Carbon Program/ Fluxnet Canada and McMaster University.
